Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach.

Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents challenges, as the importance of risk factors can vary spatially and temporally depending on climatic factors and vector and host abundance and preferences. We propose an expert-systems-based approach that uses an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) deployed within a geographic information system (GIS), to predict areas susceptible to the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) emergence. This modelling approach produces risk maps, identifying micro-level risk areas with the potential for disease emergence. The results revealed that climatic conditions, especially the minimum temperature and precipitation required for JEV transmission, contributed to high-risk conditions developed during January and March of 2022 in Victora. Compared to historical climate records, the risk of JEV emergence was increased in most parts of the state due to climate. Importantly, the model accurately predicted 7 out of the 8 local government areas that reported JEV-positive cases during the outbreak of 2022 in Victorian piggeries. This underscores the model's potential as a reliable tool for supporting local risk assessments in the face of evolving climate change.

Microscopic colitis as a missed cause of chronic diarrhea.

AIM: To determine the prevalence of increased intraepithelial lymphocytes, using immunohistochemistry in patients with normal colonoscopy and near normal biopsy. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all non-malignant colon mucosal biopsies between 2005 and 2007, reported as normal, chronic inflammation or melanosis coli in patients who were undergoing routine colonoscopy. Immunohistochemistry using CD3 was performed on all mucosal biopsies and an intraepithelial lymphocyte count (IEL) was determined. Cases with an IEL count of ≥ 20 IELs per 100 surface epithelial cells were correlated with demographic, clinical and follow-up data. A further subgroup was evaluated for lymphocytic colitis. RESULTS: Twenty (8.3%) of 241 cases revealed an IEL count ≥ 20. Six (2.5%) patients were identified as having lymphocytic colitis (P < 0.001), of whom, five were missed on initial evaluation (P = 0.01). Four of these five patients were labeled with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). On follow-up, three of the remaining 20 cases were diagnosed with malignancy (renal cell carcinoma and myelodysplastic syndrome) and one had an unknown primary tumor with multiple liver metastases. Two cases of collagenous colitis with an IEL count < 10 were included in this study. Increased IELs were not confined to patients with diarrhea as a primary presenting symptom, but were also present in patients with abdominal pain (n = 7), constipation (n = 3) and loss of weight (n = 1). CONCLUSION: Immunohistochemistry using CD3 is of value in identifying and quantifying IELs for the presence of microscopic colitis in patients with diarrhea-predominant IBS.